NFL Wizard Analysis
Two separate views: what the model projects, and where one sportsbook price differs from other books.
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Receptions and rushing attempts
The model estimates a player's count and the chance of going over a sportsbook line. Model lean shows which side its probability favors compared with the market; it is a research signal, not a bet recommendation.
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| Player / data quality | Prop | Book line | Model count | Model chance of Over | Market-implied chance of Over | Model lean | Gap | Books | Quote updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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What do these terms mean?
Negative Binomial is a way to estimate counts, such as catches or carries, while allowing more game-to-game variation than a simpler count method. It helps avoid treating every game as equally predictable.
Model chance of Over is this model's estimated chance the player finishes above the displayed line. Market-implied chance of Over comes from sportsbook Over and Under prices after removing the books' built-in margin. The gap is model chance minus market chance, in percentage points. It is not a return estimate.
Model lean follows the scanner's existing rule: less than five percentage points apart is “Aligned”; otherwise it points to Over or Under. It does not mean that side is more likely than 50%, and it does not override data-quality flags.
Cross-book anytime touchdown prices
This scan compares the best available “Yes, scores a touchdown” price with the middle price across sportsbooks for the same player. Action implied: check the named book for the better price and confirm it is still available.
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| Player / data quality | Best sportsbook | Best ATD price | Middle market price | Price gap | Books | Oldest quote age at scan |
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How is the ATD price gap measured?
The scan converts each book's price to its implied chance. “Price gap” is the middle market price's implied chance minus the best price's implied chance, in percentage points. A positive gap means one book offered a better payout than the middle book price. It does not use the football model.
The middle price needs at least three sportsbooks. “Price outlier” means the best payout is unusually far from the middle and may need extra checking. “Stale” means a contributing quote was over 15 minutes old at scan time. Quote age is measured at the scan, so an older saved slate must not be treated as live.
What has been checked?
These outputs are research. Historical sportsbook lines for the usage props are not yet available in this project, so model-versus-market performance has not been validated.